- Monday – March 1 EMU – PMI 900 GMT Release
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish. Last Month the PMI was 52.4 and the market expects a similar number. Given how weak the Euro is and the debt of Greece, Portugal and Spain, this number will be a market mover if it comes in worse than expected.
- Monday – March 1 US ISM Manufacturing 1500 GMT
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector it is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish). Last month the number was a strong 58.4, and expectations are for a number greater than 56 (which is solid). Look for this number to move the markets.
- Tuesday- March 2 Australia Interest Rate Decision 3:30 GMT
RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. At their last meeting the RBA surprised the markets by leaving interest rates steady, while the markets expected a rise of 25 basis points. Again, the markets are anticipating a rise in interest rates; give the strong employment numbers that were released last month. A decision to keep rates steady will clobber the AUD, while an increase of 50 basis points will be extremely positive for the currency.
- Tuesday – March 2 Canada Interest Rate Decision 1400 GMT
BoC Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Canada. If the BoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the CAD. Likewise, if the BoC has a dovish view on the Canadian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. The Canadian economy is solid and not far behind the Australian economy. They have refrained from increasing rates, but sometime in the next 6 months, rates will most likely rise. The market expects a steady decision and Bank Governor Carney has pledged to keep the bank’s rate at a record low 0.25 percent through June unless the inflation outlook shifts. An increase of comments about the strength of the economy will push the Canadian dollar higher.
- Wednesday – March 3 US ADP Employment Report 1315 GMT
The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. The ADP number has been slowly becoming less negative, and the employment picture in the US is the target of market participants. The expectations for the ADP report range from -10k to -50k, a number less negative will be greeted warmly, while a worse than expected number will be treated very harshly.
- Thursday – March 4 EMU GDP 10 GMT
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. With Euro feeling the pressure of Greece and Spain, the GDP number will take center stage. Expectation are for a slight increase in growth. This will be a market mover.
- Friday – March 5 US Payroll Number 1330 GMT
The nonfarm payrolls released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor is one of the most important data. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. This is released along with the unemployment rate. The estimate for payrolls is approximately -30k and the estimate for the unemployment rate is -9.9%. Last month’s rate was 9.7%down from 10.1% and an expected 10%. If the number is revised, or moves back above 10.1% the market will sell off very quickly. This will be a market mover.