- Monday – March 15th 2010, European Monetary Union Employment Change (10 GMT)
The Employment Change released by the Eurostat is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the Euro-Zone. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Last month’s Employment Change was a -.5%, which is the current expectations for analyst going into next week. The output numbers this week where mixed where France did better than expected and Germany did worse, which make this number important to the EU.
- Monday – March 15th 2010, US Industrial Production (1330 GMT)
The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. This number is reflected in the Gross Domestic Product and given the rise in the ISM manufacturing surveys, it will be important for the markets to see confirmation in this manufacturing number. Last month the number was a.9% increase month over month and this month expectations are for a .4% increase.
- Tuesday – March 16th 2010, Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting’s Minutes (0030 GMT)
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD. In a statement after the RBA tightened last week, Governor Stevens expressed a “take our time” approach, with little worry that the economy in Australia was overheating. It will be interesting to see if any member of the RBA believe a 50 basis point increase was necessary. Any descents could push the AUD/USD higher.
- Tuesday – March 16th 2010, US Housing Starts (1230 GMT)
The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Last month there was a 2.8% increase, which differed from other housing data. This will be a test for the markets to determine if housing is back on the right track.
- Wednesday March 17th, 2010 – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
BoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. Expectations are for a stable interest rate move, and dovish comments out of the BOJ. Although GDP was strong in the 4th quarter of 2009, deflationary forces in the form of CPI creates a risk the BoJ may introduce fresh quantitative easing measures given persistent deflation forces. This could push USD/JPY higher and could be a market mover.
- Wednesday March 18th, 2010 – Bank of England Minutes (930 GMT)
The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Recent economic data out of the UK has been very sluggish and the market needs to hear the plan of the BOE with this in mind. UK January industrial production contracted by 0.4%, much worse from the +0.3% expected outcome and after a 0.5% reading previously. This left the yearly rate well in negative territory, at -1.5% (from -3.7%). It was a similar story for the manufacturing sector, with production contracting by 0.9% (from +0.9%) and for a yearly rate at a very sluggish 0.2% (from -1.9%). Any hesitation from the BOE will allow pound bears to continue their onslaught.
- Thursday March 19th, 2010 – Canadian Consumer Price Index (1100 GMT)
The Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. With Canada’s economy heating up, the BOC needs some leeway in prices to keep rates at low levels. A greater than expected CPI will push the Canadian dollar through support close to 1.03.