- Monday – March 29th, 2010 – EMU Consumer Confidence (900 GMT)
Confidence measures consumer sentiment in the Euro-zone nations. The figure is the result of Euro-zone consumer surveys personal finance, the job market, the likelihood of saving and expectations on the economy. High levels of consumer confidence bode well for the economy, indicating consumers are more likely to increase consumption spurring growth and potentially sparking inflation. Conversely, low consumer confidence levels suggest decreased spending. With the recent downgrade of Portugal by Fitch, this number will gauge how consumers feel given the current fiscal issues facing the EMU. Last month’s 95.9 was a solid number, it will be important for the EUR for another solid number.
- Tuesday – March 30th, 2010 – United Kingdom Current Account (830 GMT)
Summarizes the flow of all goods, services, income, and transfer payments to and from the UK. The report acts as a gauge for how the UK economy interacts with the rest of the world. CA tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way gifts). The recent budget put out by the UK, shows a poor fiscal situation and last month’s -4.7 billion current account deficit was much worth than expected. Expect this number to be a market mover for the pound if it comes in worse than the -4.8 billion expectation.
- Tuesday – March 30th, 2010 – US Consumer Confidence (1400 GMT)
Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any U.S. measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. With the rally in the US equity markets one would expect consumer confidence to rise, but it hasn’t. Last month’s reading of 46 was worse than trader’s expected and market participants are looking for an increase to substantiate the current rally. This could be a road block for the US equity markets.
- Wednesday – March 31st, 2010 – Australian Retail Sales (30 GMT)
The retail sales number combines to volume of sales for retail items throughout the country. As the economy in Australia continues to improve, increasing retail sales can show traders an economy that is potentially heating up to fast. Last month’s 1.2% increase was in line with expectations, but with employment in the region continuing to climb at robust rates, sales at the retail level will eventually push higher. This number could greatly affect the trajectory of the AUD.
- Wednesday – March 31st, 2010 – Japan Tankan Survey (2315 GMT)
The Tankan Survey queries firms on the prevailing business climate and is conducted by Japan’s central bank to help determine monetary policy. Covering a wide range of business issues, the Tankan gives insight into the future direction of capital expenditure and pricing as well as the corporate outlook towards employment and the overall economy. The report is extensive, relevant, and Quarterly. With growth results in Japan showing conflicting signs, traders will look at the Tankan as a determining factor for current business conditions. Last month’s report showed an aggregate number of -18, and this month’s expectations are for improvement to -8. This number will have an effect on the Yen and the Nikkei.
- Thursday – April 1st, 2010 – US ISM Manufacturing Index (1400 GMT)
ISM Manufacturing assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. Fluctuations in manufacturing tend to bear the most responsibility for changes in GDP. Consequently, developments in manufacturing often front run trends in the overall economy, making the ISM manufacturing figure a leading indicator of economic turnarounds. This is a market moving event as manufacturing has been improving and continuing to show expansion. Last month’s reading was a robust 56.5 and expectations are for a readying of 56.
- Friday – April2nd, 2010 – US Employment Report (1230 GMT)
This report shows the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. The employment report is broken down into a rate and an aggregate number that show total number of jobs created. The rate has been constant at 9.7% (unemployment) for the past two months and expectations are for the same. The total number of jobs created or subtracted has been negative for more than a year and expectations on Friday are for a gain of 167 thousand jobs. The entire market will be watching these numbers and the market will move if expectations are not met.