- Monday July 26th – US New Home Sales (1400 GMT)
New Home Sale records sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them. The housing market has come crashing down in the last two months and any sign of abating weakness will be bullish for the US market.
- Tuesday July 27th – US Consumer Confidence (1400 GMT)
This release is an assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any U.S. measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand. Recent Consumer Confidence has come crashing down, pushing the markets lower on each release. Any positive upside will be very bullish for the US market.
- Wednesday July 28th – German Consumer Price Index
The CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items. CPI has been running hot in the Euro Zone and especially German, the market is looking for some relief from this month’s number.
- Wednesday July 28th – US Durable Goods Orders (1230 GMT)
Durable goods are the value of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile. Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of U.S. output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become skeptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Durable goods are a very volatile series, and are expected to show a lift in this latest series.
- Thursday July 29th – German Unemployment Rate (755 GMT)
The Employment rate is the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks. Housing in Europe and the US is well behind countries such as Australia, Canada and China. This lag has created uncertainty, and has drained investment from the marketplace. A positive reading, in line with the recent PMI, will cause the Euro and the European market to rally.
- Thursday July 29th – Japan CPI (2330 GMT)
National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items. Markets will typically pay more attention to “CPI excluding Fresh Food,” because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month-to-month or year to year basis. As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Japan has been in a deflationary environment and expectations are for another decrease in CPI.
- Friday July 30th – US GDP (1230 GMT)
The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the U.S. economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces of the economy. GDP Influence on Markets If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. GDP expectations have been coming down as retail sales and inventories have declined toward the end of June.