- Monday August 30th, 2010 Japan Industrial Production (2330 GMT)
Industrial Production is the volume of items produced in Japan ‘s mining and manufacturing industries. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Japanese economy. With a decrease for June of 1.1%, it will be important for Japan to recover in this sector in an effort to build on potential growth prospects.
- Tuesday August 31st, 2010 Euro German Employment (755 GMT)
The employment rate and change come out simultaneously. The rate is the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. The change is the actual number of persons getting jobs. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks. Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. German has continued to show robust signs of growth despite a weaker periphery and a lackluster US. For economist to believe that the core can hold up the periphery, German job growths most lead the way. This number should be a market mover.
- Tuesday August 31st, 2010 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1800 GMT)
The general information surrounding the minutes are recognized given they where announced in the FOMC statement during post the actual meeting. Rates will remain low for the foreseeable future and given the recent disappointing string of US economic data, nothing else should be expected. The Fed did mention a renewal of potential easing measures, which included bond buying which will become clearer when the minutes are released to the public.
- Wednesday September 1st, 2010 Australia Gross Domestic Product (130 GMT)
GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced in Australia during a specific period. The growth rate of GDP is used as a broad gauge of the overall economic health. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However, economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures, and strong GDP growth may induces the Australian central bank to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. As a result, positive GDP readings are typically bullish for the Australian dollar, while slumping GDP growth is usually bearish. The headline figure for GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate. It will be important for the RBA to see a leveling off of GDP growth rates, so curtail the recent string of tightening that has taken place for all of 2010. A number that is above expectations will push the Australian dollar higher, and test higher resistance.
- Wednesday September 1st, 2010 US ISM Manufacturing (1400 GMT)
The ISM Manufacturing Survey is valued for its timeliness, and indeed, during waning boom cycles analyst point out that ISM tends to be one of the biggest market moving economic releases. The reasoning lies within the ISM’s Prices Paid and Employment subcomponents. These components reflect sentiment towards inflation and labor conditions – two of the market’s most significant health indicators. Given that the ISM’s timeliness, the information gleaned from such components precedes other market data (like Non-Farm Payrolls or CPI), making the ISM a significant indicator. The headline figure is expressed as a diffusion index based on survey responses. For each category (production, new orders etc.), the index is calculated by adding the percentage of executive responding “higher” with half the percentage of “no change” responses, and subtracting the percentage of “lower” responses. The ISM manufacturing indicator is the aggregate of the results for all categories. Manufacturing has been the one bright spot for the US economy, and it will be important for the ISM to meet analyst’s expectation otherwise the S&P 500 will push through the 1030 level.
- Thursday September 2nd,, 2010 EMU GDP (900 GMT) and Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (1145 GMT)
The GDP is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced by Euro-zone nations. GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic output and provides key insight as to the driving forces in the economy. Due to this report’s lack of timeliness and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, especially if it upsets expectations. The GDP growth rate serves as a broad indicator for the health of Euro-zone economies. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, which is generally positive. Follow the GDP by nearly 3 hours will be the ECB decision on interest rates. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged at 1%, but their statement on potential QE to help the periphery is what the market is interested in hearing about.
- Friday September 3rd, 2010 US Employment Report (1230 GMT)
The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor is one of the most important data releases, and given the current attention that is being given to employment and job creating in the US, this report will be a significant release. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Along with the current report, where the change is expected to be somewhere near a positive 55 thousand jobs, reversions could play a large role in how the market reacts. Additionally, the market will also need to digest the unemployment rate that currently stands at 9.5%, as well as the average work week and the hourly wage.